What a Change on the Hour Actually Tells You
Four substitution patterns read as evidence: the scheduled hour change, the reactive swap, the double change and the message, and what each one can support.
Author: Danielle Ortiz
Danielle Ortiz covers the numbers behind a result and what they can honestly support. She writes about box scores, shot maps and tracking data, and about the distance between a statistic and the story it gets used to tell. Her recurring subject is the analysis that falls apart on a second reading.
Read a Second-Half Adjustment in the First Six Minutes
A six-minute routine for spotting second half tactical adjustments from any seat: pressing trigger, line height, one player and final-third entry points.
Find the At-Bat That Actually Decided the Game
How leverage index locates the at-bat that actually decided a postseason game, and how to read a win probability chart without reading it backwards.
One-Game Plus-Minus Deceives Almost Everyone Who Quotes It
Why plus-minus in basketball falls apart over one game, what lineup context and garbage time do to it, and the order to read a box score in instead.
Possession Share Tells You Almost Nothing About Control
Why possession share fails as a measure of control, what field tilt counts instead, how it is calculated, and the two match types that break both.
Five Numbers Worth Quoting in a Recap, Four That Mislead
The football match statistics that matter in a recap, the four that quietly mislead, and the concrete failure case that settles each argument.
Expected Goals Does Not Know Who Is Shooting
Expected goals answered plainly: what the model counts, why headers score lower, why providers disagree, and three ways to cite it in a match report.
What Belongs in the First Hundred Words of a Match Report
How to write a match report opening that works: the four facts a reader needs in the first hundred words, the three that can wait, and a full rewrite.
Fifteen Matches Before That Stat Means Anything
Early season stats are mostly noise. Which match numbers settle in three weeks, which need fifteen matches, and how to phrase the claim honestly.