One-Game Plus-Minus Deceives Almost Everyone Who Quotes It
Why plus-minus in basketball falls apart over one game, what lineup context and garbage time do to it, and the order to read a box score in instead.
Tag: sample size
Expected Goals Does Not Know Who Is Shooting
Expected goals answered plainly: what the model counts, why headers score lower, why providers disagree, and three ways to cite it in a match report.
Fifteen Matches Before That Stat Means Anything
Early season stats are mostly noise. Which match numbers settle in three weeks, which need fifteen matches, and how to phrase the claim honestly.