College Football
Recruiting Class Composite Scores: What They Predict and What They Don’t
Recruiting class composite scores — what they actually measure, how they correlate with future performance, where they break, and how to read them without...
SportsHighLight · Beat
College Football
College football, treated seriously. Conference realignment, recruiting class value, transfer portal volatility, advanced metrics adapted to the chaos of the FBS schedule. The version of the sport where analytics still has room to mature.
College Football
SP+ Explained: Bill Connelly’s Index and Reading Saturday Chaos Through Math
SP+ — what it is, where it came from, what it does well, where it breaks, and how to read it without falling for...
College Football
Transfer Portal Math: Modeling Roster Volatility in the NIL Era
Transfer portal math — how the public models try to value player moves, where the math works, where it fails, and what the next...
College Football
Returning Production: The Single Most Predictive Variable in College Football
Returning production — what it measures, why it matters so much in college football specifically, where it breaks, and how to use it without...
College Football
How Returning Production Should Shape the NFL Draft Conversation
Every April, the NFL Draft conversation produces a familiar disagreement. Scouts cite tape and combine measurables. Front offices cite proprietary…
College Football
When Returning Production Lies: Experience vs Actual Quality
A college football program returns 82% of its offensive production. The preseason ranking moves up four spots. The analytical case…
College Football
The SEC vs Big Ten Question, Settled (or Almost) by the Numbers
The SEC vs Big Ten conference debate, settled (or partially settled) by the numbers, where the data agrees with the consensus and where it...
College Football
Bracketology Beyond the Algorithm: A Practical Guide to NCAA Tournament Models
The Sunday before March Madness produces a familiar ritual. ESPN reveals the bracket. Bracketologists explain what went right and wrong.…
College Football
Coaching Continuity as a Hidden Variable in College Football Models
A college football program returns 78% of its offensive production. The major projection models — SP+, ESPN’s FPI, the various…
College Football
Reading the CFP National Championship Through SP+ and Returning Production
Every January, the CFP National Championship produces two arguments. The first is about which team won. The second is about…