College Football
When Returning Production Lies: Experience vs Actual Quality
A college football program returns 82% of its offensive production. The preseason ranking moves up four spots. The analytical case…
SportsHighLight · Author
Owen Brennan
Football writer based in Indianapolis. Former college beat reporter who turned to NFL and college football analytics after watching one too many quarterback evaluations built entirely on highlight reels. Skeptical of any take that survives less than three weeks. Covers EPA, DVOA, SP+ and the work that has to happen on the All-22 before any of those numbers make sense.
College Football
The SEC vs Big Ten Question, Settled (or Almost) by the Numbers
The SEC vs Big Ten conference debate, settled (or partially settled) by the numbers, where the data agrees with the consensus and where it...
NFL
Red-Zone Efficiency: Signal, Noise and the Most Misread NFL Splits
A team makes the playoffs with the league’s best red-zone touchdown rate. The Monday-morning coverage credits the play calling, the…
College Football
Bracketology Beyond the Algorithm: A Practical Guide to NCAA Tournament Models
The Sunday before March Madness produces a familiar ritual. ESPN reveals the bracket. Bracketologists explain what went right and wrong.…
College Football
Coaching Continuity as a Hidden Variable in College Football Models
A college football program returns 78% of its offensive production. The major projection models — SP+, ESPN’s FPI, the various…
NFL
Super Bowl Analytics: What the EPA Era Did to How We Watch the Game
Watch a Super Bowl from 2002 and the in-broadcast graphics will lead with passing yards, completion percentage, and time of…
College Football
Reading the CFP National Championship Through SP+ and Returning Production
Every January, the CFP National Championship produces two arguments. The first is about which team won. The second is about…
NFL
Which Playoff Quarterbacks Actually Earn the Pressure They Face
A NFL Wild Card weekend always produces the same conversation. A quarterback throws three picks. The blame lands on him.…
College Football
SP+ vs the CFP Committee: 2025 Bracket Disagreements
SP+ had Miami top ten since September. The committee took until BYU losing the Big 12 title to agree. Reading the model vs committee...
College Football
CFB Rivalry Week 2025: When the Favorites All Covered
Ohio State 27-9 Michigan. The Iron Bowl. The Apple Cup. Rivalry Week 2025 produced the cleanest model-aligned weekend of the season.