Methods
Which Sports Stats Age Well — and Which Collapse Overnight
Pick up an NFL broadcast from 2009 and the on-screen quarterback graphic will lead with passer rating — that opaque,…
SportsHighLight · Beat
Methods
Cross-sport frameworks for reading the numbers. Sample size, regression to the mean, role context, the discipline of losing an argument with yourself. The conceptual toolkit before the sport-specific deep dive.
Methods
Why Small Samples Keep Winning the Headline and Losing the Argument
Every NBA season produces, somewhere around game ten, a piece arguing that a certain player is having a “career year”…
Methods
What Analysts Mean by Regression to the Mean in Sports
In November of one recent NBA season, a veteran shooter went on a stretch nobody who watched closely thought was…
Methods
A Field Guide to Sports Analytics Terms People Pretend to Understand
A friend of mine — an extremely intelligent person who watches more basketball than most beat writers — once told…
Methods
MLB Pennant Race August 2025: Red Sox Surge, Yankees Stumble, the Model Says
Red Sox 71-49 leading AL East. Yankees underperforming by 4 wins. The August standings overstate the variance. Reading the regression band honestly.
Methods
The 2025 Final Four: When All Four #1 Seeds Convergence Finally Happened
All four #1 seeds reached the 2025 Final Four. First time since 2008. What the convergence reveals about bracketology models that had it roughly...